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February 12th, 2014

8,60-8,65

Как то очень неожиданно начали расти сегодня. Появилось легкое ощущение что у кого то т+6 не сработало. Если еще в пятницу и понедельник был явно один сплошной оффер, то сегодня потянуло бидом. Причем слегонца газовым. Может почудилось? Регулятор ничего не показал. Ни налево ни направо.

Если не сложно, делитесь своими наблюдениями с полей - почем народ тарится наличными $? В каких объемах ?
Хвост виляет собакой. А почему бы и не бидовать на межбанке по 8,60 напрИмер , если наличка уходит по 8,80 ( это то что мне говорили сегодня столичные обыватели)
1. Скажите, насколько для вас заметно изменение официального курса доллар-гривна?
2. Как вы считаете, отражает ли этот курс реальный, рыночный курс?
3. Как вы считаете, сможет ли регулятор с помощью официального курса регулировать рыночный курс на ближайший период?
4. так кто идет на депеш мод 26/02/14 в киеве?
Goldman Sachs Research
Ukraine: Reserves fall by more than expected, adding to pressure on the UAH
Published 08:22 AM Fri Feb 7 2014
________________________________________
Bottom line:
Reserves declined by US$2.6bn to US$17.8bn (2.1 months of import cover), against consensus expectations that they would decline by US$1.7bn. In our view, this points to larger capital outflows than we (and the market) had anticipated. Given recent volatility in the Hryvnia, outflows from UAH bank deposits are likely to accelerate in February and, assuming no resumption of Russian (or other) financial assistance, reserves could plausibly decline by US$3bn-US$4bn over the month. The decline in reserves and risk of further capital outflows underlie our view that the UAH is likely to weaken significantly further. As such, earlier today we revised our forecast for the UAH to 12 vs. the USD in 3, 6 and 12 months, and we also see significant short-term risks of an overshoot.
Key numbers:
Official reserve assets for January: US$17.8bn, down from US$20.4bn in December (consensus: US$18.7bn, GS: US$18.6bn)
Main points:
1. Official reserves assets in January fell by US$2.6bn to US$17.8bn, their lowest level since 2006 and around 2.1 months of import cover. On our projections, the current account deficit for January stood at US$0.5bn and public-sector FX debt repayments stood at US$0.8bn. We had thought that other net capital outflows driven by the recent civil unrest and political uncertainty could have amounted to US$0.5bn. However, this larger-than-expected decline in reserves suggests that they amounted to US$1.3bn.
2. Given the recent volatility in the exchange rate and heightened political uncertainty, we think that dollarization in the banking system and outflows from UAH deposits are likely to accelerate in February. To assess the possible magnitude of these outflows, we look at the experience in August-October 2008, when the FX share in bank deposits rose by 9pp. If the same shift in the FX share of deposits were to occur, this could amount to FX demand of around US$7bn. Thus, with a current account deficit for February of US$0.5bn and public-sector FX debt repayments of US$0.5bn, reserves could plausibly decline by US$3bn-US$4bn in February, assuming no resumption of Russian financial assistance.
3. The larger-than-expected decline in reserves is consistent with our view that there are substantial risks of significant further weakening of the Hryvnia. However, the outlook for the UAH is highly uncertain and is likely to depend on political developments, as we discussed in our recent piece (see CEEMEA Views: Ukraine: Weaker Hryvnia but highly uncertain outlook, February 7, 2014). In light of recent developments, we have revised our forecast for the UAH to 12 vs. the USD in 3, 6 and 12 months, but we believe that short-term risks of an overshoot are also significant.

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